December 2018
AV Update
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From the Editors
As we enter 2019, all of us here at CAVCOE
wish all of you our very best wishes for a
prosperous and successful 2019.
On a more somber note, we recently received
an email from an industry association that
pointed out that 40,000 people die each year
on America’s highways each year and 1.25
million people die worldwide. The email said
(quite rightly) that this is unacceptable
and that we will only get to zero fatalities
and serious injuries through CV/AV
technology (which is misleading).
It is unfortunate that multiple stakeholders
still perpetuate the myth of crash-proof
AVs. They need to better manage the public's
expectations. There are three realities:
First, CAVs will clearly eliminate many
collisions and traffic deaths but will never
be 100% safe. A study concluded that drivers
are wholly or partially responsible for 93%
of traffic deaths. In other words, a minimum
of 7% would have happened regardless of
whether a human or computer was doing the
driving. In addition, as an engineer, I know
that all hardware and software fails
occasionally. A report CAVCOE co-authored
built on this and forecast an 80% reduction
in traffic collisions and deaths when we
have full deployment -- not a 100%
reduction.
Second, the public's expectations are that
humans are fallible but that CAV technology
will be 100% safe. When stakeholders say
CAVs can eliminate all traffic deaths
without being more specific, or when
governments say that they will keep people
safe, this reinforces the public's
expectation that the technology will be 100%
safe, which is mission impossible.
Third, if this messaging catches on, and
when more people are killed in CAV
collisions -- which is a matter of when and
not if -- the disconnect between the
public's expectations and reality will be
substantial. This will cause a public and
media backlash and this will set the CAV
industry back. And paradoxically, a slowdown
in CAV deployment will actually cost lives.
We recommend (again) that all stakeholders'
messaging on CAV safety be more factual and
nuanced.
Canadian AV News
The end of 2018 is a
good time to look back on this
year's top 10 news stories in the
CAV space -- seen through a
Canadian lens:
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The publication of the
report Driving Change by the Standing
Senate (of Canada) Committee on
Transport and Communications.
-
GM's announcement that
it planned to mass produce a vehicle
with no steering wheels or pedals
ready for a 2019 launch. (GM has now
walked back the exact date but it is
obviously close.)
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The Ottawa AV Summit
2018 organized by the Kanata North
Business Association, Invest Ottawa
and CAVCOE was a big success.
-
The tragic death of
Elaine Herzberg in Tempe AZ who was
hit by an Uber vehicle in AV mode is
still reverberating in the CAV space.
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Unmanned Systems Canada
announced an Unmanned Ground Vehicle
(UGV) Student Competition
-
The July 2018 issue of AV Update
listed 30 Canadian CAV pilots and
demos, past, present and future.
-
Transport
Canada published Testing
Highly Automated Vehicles in
Canada: Guidelines for Trial
Organizations.
-
The
Canadian Automated Vehicles
Institute (CAVI) was announced.
It is a new association that
will help develop and implement
national strategies to help
Canada prepare for the CAV era.
-
Germany’s
Federal Ministry of Transport
& Digital Infrastructure
published a 36-page report
titled Ethics Commission
Report on Automated &
Connected Driving.
-
CAV
Canada 2019, a national
conference addressing all
aspects of automated and
connected vehicles, was
announced. This will be the
largest CAV event in Canada
and will be held in September
2019.
The
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario
(MTO) announced on January 31st.
that In response to growing stakeholder
interest in CAV testing and deployment,
advances in AV technology and to ensure
economic competitiveness, it has expanded
the existing AV pilot regulations in three
ways::
-
Vehicles with SAE level 3
technology that are originally
manufactured with a driving automation
system, and commercially available for
sale in Canada are no longer required to
be part of the AV pilot;
-
Testing of driverless AVs
on Ontario’s roads under certain
conditions is allowed under the AV
pilot; and,
-
Testing of Cooperative
Truck Platoons on Ontario’s roads while
under certain operating conditions are
also allowed under the AV pilot.
Additional
details are here and here.
GM's announcement that it is
closing its Oshawa ON plant as part of its
strategy to focus on CAVs and EVs was a
big shock to many -- but it should not
have been. Mary Barra, GM's CEO, has said
on multiple occasions that the auto sector
will change more in the next 5-10 years
than it has in the last 50. Also, CAVCOE
and other thought leaders have been saying
that as the OEMs shift their focus to
Mobility-as-a-Service and driverless
taxis, far fewer cars will be built and
sold in the 2020s. The challenge for
unions, all levels of government and
others is to accept the impending arrival
of autonomous, connected, and electric
vehicles, accept that they will be
disruptive, constructively plan for the
future -- including re-training
opportunities etc. -- and not engage in a
futile attempt to extend 20th Century
approaches beyond their best-before date.
Unmanned Systems Canada's Automated
Snow Plow Student Competition is
progressing well. 15 student teams from
across the country have expressed
interest. USC looks forward to welcoming
them to Ottawa in May 2019.
On December 10, 2018, BlackBerry
announced a new Security Credential
Management System (SCMS) for
autonomous/connected vehicles as well as
Smart City applications. SCMS is based on
BlackBerry’s Certicom
technology for secure wireless
communication. BlackBerry’s first project
using the new SCMS service will be in
partnership with Invest Ottawa,
which will leverage it within a secure
16-kilometre autonomous vehicle (AV) test
track that resembles a miniature city,
complete with pavement markings, traffic
lights, stop signs, pedestrian crosswalks
and is equipped with GPS, DSRC, Wi-Fi,
4G/LTE and 5G. More information is at this link.
International AV News
On December 5, 2018, Waymo finally
launched its much talked about commercial
self-driving taxi service in Chandler,
Arizona. The service called Waymo One
was under intense development in the
Phoenix area for well over a year. There
was extensive media coverage after the
launch. Waymo One is currently operating
in a 60 sq. mile area in Chandler and
surrounding areas where Waymo has its
operations and maintenance base. The Waymo
vehicles will be operating with a safety
driver onboard for now. More information
is at this link
In a related development, media reports
indicate that not everyone is enthralled
by Waymo’s testing of its AV in the
Phoenix area. At least 21 cases of
violence or threats against Waymo has been
reported to police forces in Phoenix area.
More information is at this link.
The U.S. Congress is trying to pass the
necessary legislation before the end of
the year to pave the way for faster
development of AV technologies. The House
of Representative had passed the AV Start Act
in Fall 2017. Now the Senate will need to
do the same for the law to take effect.
If legislators don’t pass this bill by the
end of the year, both the House and Senate
will have to start over from scratch in
the new Congress. More information is at this link.
Ford continues to be quite active
in the AV arena. The latest development is
Ford’s announcement that it will launch an
extensive self-driving pilot in Washington
D.C. in 2019. Ford conducted a number of
self-driving demonstrations in Miami and
announced a partnership with Walmart to
deliver merchandise using self-driving
cars. Ford’s vision for developing its
self-driving business can be seen in this
graphic. There is more information below
and at this link.
Volvo is developing self-driving
trucks for transporting limestone in a
Norwegian mine. Volvo calls this the first
commercial autonomous solution
transporting limestone from an open pit
mine to a nearby port. Six existing
autonomous trucks will be upgraded with
sophisticated tech, allowing them to
deliver raw limestone to a crusher three
miles away without any human interaction.
More information is at this link.
Future AVs are supposed to create a lot of
spare time for people who no longer have
to undertake the driving task. Audi
and Disney think they can fill
that void by creating a new form of media
designed with AVs in mind. The firms
intend to unveil what they have in mind at
CES 2019 in January. More information is
at this link.
On December 10, 2018, the Korea Herald
reported that Samsung is planning
to get into the AV business. The report
indicates that Samsung is reassigning some
of its own staff and is aggressively
hiring people with at least five-year
experience in the field. One major client
of Samsung is Tesla. Samsung is
developing a System-on-a-chip for Tesla’s
Model 3 electric car. LG Electronics
is also mentioned in the report as having
an interest in AVs. More information is
at this link.
The potential impacts of AV technologies
are not lost on the insurance industry. A
number of reports have been published by
major insurance companies on this topic.
One of the latest was published in Fall
2018 by Prudential Plc’s Global Investment
Management (PGIM) group. The 26-page
report titled The Technology Frontier,
Investment Implications of Disruptive
Technologies delves into impacts of
some of emerging technologies including
AVs. More information is at this link.
The New York Times on November 27,
2018 printed an article on some of the
real-world challenges facing AV
developers. The more likely applications
of AVs could be in agriculture, mining and
fleets dedicated to city delivery routes.
The article also gives brief profiles on
some of the more prominent AV startups.
The article can be read at this link.
Similarly, Forbes magazine
published a three-part series of articles
on the 15 major hurdles faced by AVs
before they can go mainstream. Forbes
indicates that these hurdles fall into
four categories: scaling, trust, market
viability and secondary effects. Each of
these categories are expanded in the
three-part series. The articles can be
read at this link.
On December 4, 2018, the BBC
published a short video on how UK’s
Ministry of Defence is developing
autonomous military vehicles for future
conflicts. Autonomous weapon technologies
(ground, air and marine) are an active
area of development (see this link).
The BBC video clip can be viewed at this link.
The UK government continues to
pour funds into AV development. One of the
latest is a £19m grant for a new AV
project in the West Midlands. The Meridan
3 project is led by Warwick Manufacturing
Group and Highways England. It will see
more motorways and rural routes used in
this project. Some £3.3m of the funding
will be used to install equipment on the
side of motorways as part of the testing.
More information at this link.
The UK government has also
provided funding of £4.35m to facilitate Scotland's
first self-driving bus trial which
will run between Fife and Edinburgh next
year. This pilot project will include a
fleet of five autonomous single-decker
buses. More information is at this link.
Another book on
AVs was recently published. The book is
titled No One at the Wheel:
Driverless Cars and the Road of the
Future. The author is Samuel
Schwartz, a former traffic
commissioner for New York City. The book
describes how the driverless vehicle
revolution will transform highways,
cities, workplaces and laws not only in
the U.S. but across the globe. More information
from the New York Times book review is
at this link.
And finally, Amazon has
developed a US$399 self-driving
toy car for web developers
wanting to try out some of their
own self-driving technology. The
toy car can be used to train and
tweak machine learning models in
an online simulator and then
test drive them. See the photo
on the right and there is more
information at this
link.
Upcoming AV-Related Events
Feb 28 –
March 1, 2019: Operational Safe
Systems for Level 5 Automation (OSS5),
South San Francisco Conference Centre
April 8-9, 2019: Autonomous &
Connected Vehicle Europe 2019, Berlin,
Germany
April 28 – May 1, 2019: IEEE Vehicular
Technology Conference, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia
May 8-9, 2019: IoT613 Conference,
Gatineau, Quebec
May 21-23, 2019: Autonomous Vehicle
Test & Development Symposium Europe,
Stuttgart, Germany
June 2-5, 2019: Canadian Institute
of Transportation Engineers (CITE)
annual conference at the Westin hotel in
Ottawa
June 4-6, 2019: TU-Automotive
Detroit conference & exhibition for
future auto tech, Novi, MI
June 9-12, 2019: UITP Global Public
Transport Summit; Stockholm, Sweden
Sept 9-10, 2019: CAV Canada 2019,
a national CAV conference organized by the
Kanata North Business Association, Invest
Ottawa and the Canadian Automated Vehicles
Institute (CAVI); Brookstreet Hotel, Ottawa
Sept 22-25, 2019: Joint TAC and ITS
Canada conference, Halifax, Nova
Scotia
Sept 22-25,
2019: IEEE Vehicular
Technology Conference, Honolulu,
Hawaii
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AV Update is a free, monthly roundup of news and
analysis in the world of automated vehicles and their
impact on all levels of government and the private
sector.
Chief Editor: Ahmad Radmanesh
Contributor to this issue: Barrie Kirk
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We welcome all comments; please send them here
© CAVCOE 2018
CAVCOE (formerly the Canadian Automated Vehicles
Centre of Excellence) provides advice to public and
private sector organizations to help them prepare for
the arrival of self-driving vehicles
300 Earl Grey Drive, Suite 222,
Ottawa ON K2T 1C1, Canada.
info@cavcoe.com
www.cavcoe.com |
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